The SpreadEdge Newsletter includes a \u201cWatch List\u201d of trades that meet our strict screening criteria. \u00a0Included in the Watch List are the markets, commodity symbols, entry and exit dates, win %, average profit, average drawdown, best profit, worst loss, and risk level (using a 1-5 scale). \u00a0All information is hypothetical and is based on the most recent 15 years of historical data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
![\"\"](\"https:\/\/jwilsonpaving.ca\/wilsonfarms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-101-1024x497.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\nThis week there are 2 trades that are planned for client and personal accounts. This article will focus on the Heating Oil calendar spread.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.<\/strong> Technical Analysis<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Heating Oil is hovering above the lows from late last year. Heating Oil has also formed 2 bullish divergences where the Relative Strength Index has increased while prices have decreased.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Commodity carry and roll<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Carry and roll calculate the percent carry yield which is determined by looking at the difference between the current front month contract price compared to the same month a year out. The difference is divided by the current month notional value.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Heating Oil has a % carry yield of just 1.1 and is just above the lowest carry score for the past 52 weeks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Hedge Fund Positioning<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Managed money hedge funds are consistently drivers of futures price changes.\u00a0 When hedge funds buy futures prices tend to increase and vice versa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Heating Oil is currently just above of the lowest hedge funds positions over the past 52 weeks. The most recent estimate of 5,671 is barely 25% of the average position level during this time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n CTA Momentum and Relative Strength<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n The CTA Positioning and Momentum Score is an accurate measure of current momentum and trend-following trader positioning using a (+10 \/ -10 scale). Momentum and trend following traders represent a large percentage of trading and can move markets significantly higher or lower. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Relative Strength is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements.\u00a0 RSI has a 0 to 100 scale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Heating Oil has the minimum (10) CTA momentum score indicating the CTA\u2019s have no dry powder to sell long positions. The relative strength is just 34 and just above the key reversal level of 30.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Spread Chart<\/strong><\/em> To trade Heating Oil, I will buy the January, March calendar spread. The optimal entry is Friday June 7, based on the past 15 years of historical data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For a video of this trade<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Use coupon code \u201cSpreadEdge\u201d and get the Weekly Newsletter and Daily Alerts<\/a> for $1 for the first month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For a limited time, you can receive my Futures Training Videos<\/a> for free with a 3-month, 6-month, or 12-month subscription.<\/p>\n\n\n\n For a FREE eBook about the SpreadEdge seasonal spread strategy<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n More Information<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n The SpreadEdge Weekly Newsletter is published every weekend and provides a broad overview of the important seasonal, technical, and fundamental indicators within the Energy, Grains, Meats, Softs, Metals and Currency markets. In addition, spread trade recommendations and follow-up on open trades is also provided. For a free copy of the Weekly Newsletter, please send an email to info@SpreadEdgeCapital.com<\/p>\n\n\n\n Darren Carlat<\/p>\n\n\n\n SpreadEdge Capital, LLC<\/p>\n\n\n\n (214) 636-3133<\/p>\n\n\n\n Darren@SpreadEdgeCapital.com<\/p>\n\n\n\n www.SpreadEdgeCapital.com<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n Disclaimer<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n SpreadEdge Capital, LLC is registered as a Commodity Trading Advisor with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is an NFA member. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Futures trading is not suitable for all investors, The risk associated with futures trading is substantial. Only risk capital should be used for these investments because you can lose more than your original investment. This is not a solicitation. SpreadEdge Capital specializes in seasonal spread trading across a wide variety of commodity markets. A spread trade is the simultaneous purchase and sale of the same commodity with different delivery […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2031,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15,16],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2024","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-inside-futures","category-softs","entry","has-media"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/jwilsonpaving.ca\/wilsonfarms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2024","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/jwilsonpaving.ca\/wilsonfarms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/jwilsonpaving.ca\/wilsonfarms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jwilsonpaving.ca\/wilsonfarms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jwilsonpaving.ca\/wilsonfarms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2024"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/jwilsonpaving.ca\/wilsonfarms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2024\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2032,"href":"https:\/\/jwilsonpaving.ca\/wilsonfarms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2024\/revisions\/2032"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jwilsonpaving.ca\/wilsonfarms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/2031"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/jwilsonpaving.ca\/wilsonfarms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2024"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jwilsonpaving.ca\/wilsonfarms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2024"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/jwilsonpaving.ca\/wilsonfarms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2024"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/jwilsonpaving.ca\/wilsonfarms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-102-1024x493.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/jwilsonpaving.ca\/wilsonfarms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-103.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/jwilsonpaving.ca\/wilsonfarms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-104.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/jwilsonpaving.ca\/wilsonfarms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-105.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Spread Charts represent the difference between the front and back month contracts and are simply the front month price minus the back month price. \u00a0Spreads that are sold profit when the price gets more negative or less positive. \u00a0Spreads that are bought profit when prices get more positive or less negative.<\/p>\n\n\n\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/jwilsonpaving.ca\/wilsonfarms\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/07\/image-106-1024x577.png\")
<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
Videos<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n
On the date of publication, Darren Carlat<\/a> did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"