Soybeans are posting firm to 4 cent higher trade on the last trade day of June. They settled 2 to 10 ½ cents lower on Thursday, with old crop July and August seeing the most sell pressure. The market is still inverted or backwardated despite the bear spreading, with July deliveries 16 cents premium to August. Soymeal futures were 50 cents lower to $1.10 per ton higher at the close, with Soy Oil futures firming to settled 9 lower to 4 higher.
FAS weekly data showed soybean export sales during the week that ended on June 30 at 282,868 MT, below the 300,000-600,000 MT trade estimates and a 3-week low. New crop bookings were in the middle of the expected 0 to 200,000 MT range at 101,780 MT, as China has yet to purchase any new crop beans from the US.
Soy meal sales came in a 219,307 MT for the 2023/24 marketing year, with the 2024/25 sales at 24,370 MT, as combined sales were a 3-week high and in the middle of the estimated range from 150,000 to 300,000 MT. Bean oil fell short of estimates, as USDA tallied net reductions of 10,590 MT, with Mexico cancelling 11,400 MT.
Soybean acreage estimates ahead of today’s survey driven Acreage report are for 86.753 million acres. That would be 243,000 acres above the March Intentions number. The range of estimates in the various surveys runs about 1 million acres in either direction at 85.5 to 87.5 million acres. Quarterly Grain Stocks data is expected to show 962 mbu of soybeans on hand at the end of the third quarter (June 1). That would be up 166 mu from last year’s 796 mbu, with trade ideas anywhere from 861 mbu on the low end to 1.015 bbu for those more bearish.
Stats Canada pegged 2024 Canadian canola plantings at 22 million acres, up 600,000 from earlier intentions and down just 0.3% from last year. Soybean acres are seen at 5.74 million acres, a 2% increase from last year. The International Grains Council increased their world bean production total by 1 MMT. With consumption left unchanged, expected world ending stocks were up 1 MMT to 79 MMT.
Jul 24 Soybeans closed at $11.52 1/4, down 10 1/2 cents, currently up ½ cents
Nearby Cash was $10.98 1/2, down 8 3/4 cents,
Aug 24 Soybeans closed at $11.36 1/4, down 6 cents, currently up 3 cents
Nov 24 Soybeans closed at $11.04 3/4, down 2 1/4 cents, currently 3 ¾ cents
New Crop Cash was $10.51 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
