E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)

• S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 5521.50, down 24.50 on Friday and 12.75 on the week
• NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 19,927.25, down 112.25 on Friday and 55.50 on the week

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures set fresh intraday highs on Friday but quickly faded after trapping those who bought on the heels of supportive economic data. Core PCE, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, was in line with expectations, and the Personal Spending component was light, which further supported the narrative of a tiring consumer after Q1 GDP showed a revision lower in Consumer Spending. Furthermore, June’s final Michigan Consumer dataset revised 1-year inflation expectations lower to 3.0% from 3.3%. At that point, all the excitement was captured, and 10 minutes after the Michigan release, on the final day of the quarter, the tape exuded clear buyers’ exhaustion. Within two hours, the opening bell range had been surrendered.

The ensuing weakness certainly set the stage for perma-bears to spread their wings over the weekend (social media and pundit articles); yup, those who have been calling for the market to correct since sub-4000 S&P, and will act as if they were right upon the next healthy 5% consolidation. We do believe traders must carry a sense of caution as the new quarter, amid a holiday and data-heavy week, gets underway, but we invited Friday’s tradable range and weakness as it helped to further define support. We have major three-star support in the S&P aligning our previous pocket with Friday’s gap settlement at 5516-5521.50. Although we do have two additional areas of critical support defined at 5498.75-5503 and 5589.75-5592.75, we do realize an extended period of time below 5516-5521.50 after the first hour of trade would help encourage a prolonged healthy pullback through the middle of the week that could extend as low as 5400. Until then we must remain cautiously Bullish in Bias.

Traders must gear up for ISM Manufacturing today at 9:00 am CT and ISM Services on Wednesday.

• Bias: Neutral/Bullish
• Resistance: 5541.50, 5547.25-5552.75, 5563.75, 5576.75, 5583-5588, 5620.75**, 5762.75
• Pivot: 5535.50
• Support: 5516-5521.50, 5510.25-5511.75**, 5498.75-5503, 5489.75-5492.75, 5465.60, 5448.25-5449.25, 5427.50-5430.75

NQ (September)

• Resistance: 20,039, 20,070-20,075, 20,116-20,130, 20,178-20,197, 20,215-20,228, 20,247-20,274, 20,371
• Pivot: 19,985
• Support: 19,901-19,927, 19,832-19,856, 19,792, 19,732-19,757, 19,649, 19,426-19,497*

Crude Oil (August)

Last week’s close: Settled at 81.54, down 0.20 on Friday and up 0.81 on the week

WTI Crude Oil futures have been building a floor out above the psychological $80 mark. The June 18th breakout above 80.11-80.61 has failed to extend gains significantly but has remained robustly constructive above support. Headwinds have come from the fear of rising production from OPEC+ and the U.S. Also, despite weak Manufacturing PMIs from China over the weekend Crude Oil is bid to $82 this morning and finding taiwlinds from Hurricane Beryl.

Price action stuck its nose above major three-star resistance at 82.24-82.35 Friday, and we still view this area as significant, with a close above likely inviting added buying.

• Bias: Bullish/Neutral
• Resistance: 82.24-82.35, 82.72*, 84.00
• Pivot: 81.85
• Support: 80.97-81.21, 80.11-80.36, 79.72-79.97, 78.61-78.94*

Gold (August) / Silver (September)

Gold, last week’s close: Settled at 2339.6, up 3.0 on Friday and 8.4 on the week

Silver, last week’s close: Settled at 29.56, up 0.304 on Friday and down 0.382 on the week

Gold and Silver futures failed to respond to a barrage of supportive economic data through the end of the week, and despite a positive finish, it felt more or less flat-footed. We now look to ISM Manufacturing at 9:00 am CT, and it can be a tough datapoint to balance; metals are used in the manufacturing process, but weaker data is seen supportive to the Fed cutting rates. At the end of the day, we must see a sustained move in Gold out above major three-star resistance at 2348.7-2350.6 and Silver above 29.95-30.12 in order to encourage price action to come out of a constructive bottoming pattern.

• Bias: Neutral/Bullish
• Resistance: 2348.7-2850.6, 2355.3-2358.8, 2369**
• Pivot: 2338-2340.5
• Support: 2326.8-2329.7, 2322, 2312.2-2315.9, 2304.2-2306.8*

Silver (Sept)

• Resistance: 29.70-29.74, 29.95-30.12
• Pivot: 29.50
• Support: 29.40, 29.25, 28.90-29.07, 28.65-28.74, 27.84-28.08***

Micro Bitcoin (July)

• Last week’s close: Settled at 60,325, down 1,520 on Friday and 4,485 on the week
• Bias: Neutral/Bullish
• Resistance: 64,362-64,810***
• Pivot: 62,995-63,015
• Support: 62,254*, 61,010-61,320, 60,325-60,390, 59,590, 58,130-58,845*

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