Grains Overview & Analysis
Overview
This will be the last update for the July contracts in Grains.
November Soybeans are sitting on a key long term 61.8% retracement, this level is critical to the next big move.
December Corn failed to get above the 457.00 swing point for the week and has closed below the 441.00 major Gann square, this will be the swing point for the week.
December Wheat failed to get above the 607.00 swing point for the week and it fell 1 cent shy of the 78.6% level at 478.00. Holding this level can cause a good rally.
Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle are both up against 78.6% retracements and these levels can cause a sharp setback.
Lean Hogs went back to test the key level of 87.00, this is a 61.8% and as long as this holds we will be looking for 61.8% the other way per the ONE44 61.8% rule.
Soybeans
July
It so far has been a tight range for the week as it traded above and below the 1166.00 swing point for the week with no follow through. Without making new highs, or lows all the levels from last week remain the same.
Use 1166.00 as the swing point for the week again.
Above it, the first target is 78.6% back to the 5/23/24 high at 1236.00. The long term target remains at 1319.25, this is a major Gann square and 61.8% to the 11/15/23 high. The reason for this target is because the 2/29/23 low held 61.8% and following the ONE44 61.8% rule we will be looking for 61.8% the other way (1319.25) as long as it holds. Any rally that can’t get above 38.2% at 1196.00 is a negative sign and new lows can follow.
Below it, you will still have to watch for a trade down to the 1151.25 major Gann square and close back above 1166.00, as this can cause a sharp rally. A failure to turn higher from this area will give us a new long term target of 1063.00, this is 78.6% on the continuation chart. Before then there are two other major Gann squares to watch for support and then use as the swing point if closed below at 1114.00 and 1079.25.
Corn
July
From last week,
It failed to hold the 455.25 major Gann square and is now at 78.6% of the 6/5/24 low and 6/13/24 high at 443.00.
Use 443.00 as the swing point for the week.
Below it, look for 78.6% at 434.00, a failure to turn back up from this area will give us a downside target of 78.6% at 417.00 on the continuation chart. Holding 78.6% at 434.00 can be the start of the next Bull run, or at least send it 78.6% of where it just came from, yet to be determined.
It never got above the 443.00 swing point for the week and there was no turn higher from 434.00, it has now hit 78.6% on the continuation chart at 417.00.
Use 417.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, the long term target is 78.6% back to the 5/14/24 high at 463.00. The short term target is 38.2% of the same move at 439.00, this level needs to be taken out to turn the short term trend positive.
Below it, there are only major Gann squares to look for support and then use as a swing point when closed below, the next two are 391.75 and 356.25.
Wheat
July
From last week,
As we mentioned in the Overview this big break came from a key long term retracement. The 38.2% rule is the same no matter what the range is and the bigger the range the bigger the moves that can happen from it. In this case it fell just short of the long term 38.2% level at 725.00 and then failed to hold 38.2% of the rally at 651.00 and that turned the short term negative. The break has now reached 78.6% back to the 3/8/24 low at 577.00.
Use 577.00 as the swing point for the week.
Below it, a failure to turn higher from 577.00 will give us a long term target of 78.6% on the continuation chart at 447.25, this is also a major Gann square. Before then there are two major Gann squares to watch for support and then as swing points when closed below at 540.00 and 497.50.
It never closed above the 577.00 swing point for the week and has now hit the 540.00 major Gann square.
Use 540.00 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, look for 38.2% back to the 5/28/24 high at 607.00. Any rally that can’t get above 23.6% of the same move at 580.00 is a negative sign and new lows can quickly follow.
Below it, the long term target is 78.6% on the continuation chart at 447.25, this is also a major Gann square. The short term target is the next major Gann square at 497.50.
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On the date of publication, Nick Ehrenberg did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
