“La Niña may not form this summer: What history says about early season grain, sugar weather & the markets”
by Jim Roemer – Meteorologist – Commodity Trading Advisor – Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict – Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter
– Weekend Report: June 7-9, 2024
We saw some short-covering in grains late this week, as prices got a bit too cheap ahead of the North American summer and built some of the bearishness into the corn and soybean market on recent great early-season planting conditions in the Midwest.
This video is a May 27th interview I did on “Market to Market” (A popular Midwest farm radio show).
I am the most frequent “podcast” guest on this PBS program and “previously” discussed the following:
- The active tornado season and weakening El Niño events and what that may portend for corn and soybeans in terms of June and July weather. However, based on my in-house www.climateprecit.com software, all of this talk about La Niña come July or August is over-done.
- The record warm oceans and how this could be a caveat for some potential weather issues, especially in August.
- My previous slightly bullish wheat outlook on Russian weather problems four weeks ago. However, the decent U.S. wheat crop and seasonal bearish factors have pressured the market. My one new concern for the wheat market is the tremendous flooding in parts of Germany and Eastern Europe.
- A closer look at the Russia/Ukraine weather forecast from 10 days ago and some rains in key areas that helped to take the steam out of the wheat market this past week
- A look at the U.S. drought index and how I predicted this spring (great Midwest rains back in March).
- Weakening El Niño events and what corn prices usually do into July. This season, however, drought in Mexico and previous weather issues in South America will have to be watched to offset poor demand for corn.
Weather is key from coffee to sugar and of course grains and the natural gas market.
2025 sugar crop may be compromised if dryness continues.
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Thanks for your interest in commodity weather!
Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews, and The Weather Wealth Team
Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry.
Trading futures and options involves a significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
On the date of publication, Jim Roemer did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
